Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since March 2026 have centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Hengam Island forms part of Iran's defensive positions alongside Qeshm and other nearby islands. U.S. strikes on July 15, 2026, targeted a site on Hengam, following earlier actions against command centers, air defenses, and missile facilities in the region. Iranian forces have asserted control over the strait, issuing warnings and conducting attacks on non-compliant vessels. No confirmed ground operations or territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam itself. Trader assessments reflect the low likelihood of rapid occupation amid high escalation risks, while monitoring potential U.S. or allied moves to secure sea lanes and any Iranian countermeasures that could alter island status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-07-31
7月31日
2%
8月31日
3%
$2,119 交易量
7月31日
$1,166 交易量
2%
8月31日
$952 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since March 2026 have centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Hengam Island forms part of Iran's defensive positions alongside Qeshm and other nearby islands. U.S. strikes on July 15, 2026, targeted a site on Hengam, following earlier actions against command centers, air defenses, and missile facilities in the region. Iranian forces have asserted control over the strait, issuing warnings and conducting attacks on non-compliant vessels. No confirmed ground operations or territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam itself. Trader assessments reflect the low likelihood of rapid occupation amid high escalation risks, while monitoring potential U.S. or allied moves to secure sea lanes and any Iranian countermeasures that could alter island status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,119结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since March 2026 have centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Hengam Island forms part of Iran's defensive positions alongside Qeshm and other nearby islands. U.S. strikes on July 15, 2026, targeted a site on Hengam, following earlier actions against command centers, air defenses, and missile facilities in the region. Iranian forces have asserted control over the strait, issuing warnings and conducting attacks on non-compliant vessels. No confirmed ground operations or territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam itself. Trader assessments reflect the low likelihood of rapid occupation amid high escalation risks, while monitoring potential U.S. or allied moves to secure sea lanes and any Iranian countermeasures that could alter island status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,119结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges since March 2026 have centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Hengam Island forms part of Iran's defensive positions alongside Qeshm and other nearby islands. U.S. strikes on July 15, 2026, targeted a site on Hengam, following earlier actions against command centers, air defenses, and missile facilities in the region. Iranian forces have asserted control over the strait, issuing warnings and conducting attacks on non-compliant vessels. No confirmed ground operations or territorial shifts have occurred on Hengam itself. Trader assessments reflect the low likelihood of rapid occupation amid high escalation risks, while monitoring potential U.S. or allied moves to secure sea lanes and any Iranian countermeasures that could alter island status.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题