Persistent US-Iran tensions and the ongoing blockade have compressed Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 3-5 vessels daily as of late August 2026, versus the pre-crisis baseline of approximately 100-130 ships, according to Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Windward data. This environment—marked by Iranian routing mandates, IRGC enforcement, high war-risk premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark activity—drives the closely matched 31.5% and 28.5% market-implied odds on 0-5 versus 5-10 average ships by end-September. Traders weigh the durability of the blockade and stalled Oman-mediated talks against incremental recovery via shadow-fleet movements or limited diplomatic concessions, with higher bins priced for any meaningful easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
0-5
32%
5-10
29%
10-15
17%
15-20
6%
20-25
5%
25-30
11%
30+
9%
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
0-5
$133 交易量
32%
5-10
$220 交易量
29%
10-15
$224 交易量
17%
15-20
$431 交易量
6%
20-25
$45 交易量
5%
25-30
$4,032 交易量
11%
30+
$52 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and the ongoing blockade have compressed Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 3-5 vessels daily as of late August 2026, versus the pre-crisis baseline of approximately 100-130 ships, according to Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Windward data. This environment—marked by Iranian routing mandates, IRGC enforcement, high war-risk premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark activity—drives the closely matched 31.5% and 28.5% market-implied odds on 0-5 versus 5-10 average ships by end-September. Traders weigh the durability of the blockade and stalled Oman-mediated talks against incremental recovery via shadow-fleet movements or limited diplomatic concessions, with higher bins priced for any meaningful easing.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
交易量
$5,137结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran tensions and the ongoing blockade have compressed Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 3-5 vessels daily as of late August 2026, versus the pre-crisis baseline of approximately 100-130 ships, according to Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Windward data. This environment—marked by Iranian routing mandates, IRGC enforcement, high war-risk premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark activity—drives the closely matched 31.5% and 28.5% market-implied odds on 0-5 versus 5-10 average ships by end-September. Traders weigh the durability of the blockade and stalled Oman-mediated talks against incremental recovery via shadow-fleet movements or limited diplomatic concessions, with higher bins priced for any meaningful easing.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$5,137结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETPersistent US-Iran tensions and the ongoing blockade have compressed Strait of Hormuz transits to roughly 3-5 vessels daily as of late August 2026, versus the pre-crisis baseline of approximately 100-130 ships, according to Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and Windward data. This environment—marked by Iranian routing mandates, IRGC enforcement, high war-risk premiums, major carrier rerouting, and widespread AIS-dark activity—drives the closely matched 31.5% and 28.5% market-implied odds on 0-5 versus 5-10 average ships by end-September. Traders weigh the durability of the blockade and stalled Oman-mediated talks against incremental recovery via shadow-fleet movements or limited diplomatic concessions, with higher bins priced for any meaningful easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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