Recent Houthi threats and attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since late July, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after dropping from 354 pre-blockade levels. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability, reflecting trader expectations that traffic will hold above that threshold amid partial stabilization, while lower bins capture risks of further escalation. Ongoing regional tensions, including potential impacts on tanker flows and Saudi crude exports to Asia, continue to weigh on volumes, with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope sustaining elevated freight and insurance costs. Key near-term catalysts include any new maritime incidents or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于200-219 27%
180-199 24%
<160 20%
160-179 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
<160
20%
160-179
20%
180-199
24%
200-219
27%
220+
48%
200-219 27%
180-199 24%
<160 20%
160-179 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
<160
$0 交易量
20%
160-179
$0 交易量
20%
180-199
$0 交易量
24%
200-219
$0 交易量
27%
220+
$82 交易量
48%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since late July, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after dropping from 354 pre-blockade levels. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability, reflecting trader expectations that traffic will hold above that threshold amid partial stabilization, while lower bins capture risks of further escalation. Ongoing regional tensions, including potential impacts on tanker flows and Saudi crude exports to Asia, continue to weigh on volumes, with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope sustaining elevated freight and insurance costs. Key near-term catalysts include any new maritime incidents or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$82结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since late July, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after dropping from 354 pre-blockade levels. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability, reflecting trader expectations that traffic will hold above that threshold amid partial stabilization, while lower bins capture risks of further escalation. Ongoing regional tensions, including potential impacts on tanker flows and Saudi crude exports to Asia, continue to weigh on volumes, with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope sustaining elevated freight and insurance costs. Key near-term catalysts include any new maritime incidents or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$82结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since late July, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after dropping from 354 pre-blockade levels. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market leader at 47% implied probability, reflecting trader expectations that traffic will hold above that threshold amid partial stabilization, while lower bins capture risks of further escalation. Ongoing regional tensions, including potential impacts on tanker flows and Saudi crude exports to Asia, continue to weigh on volumes, with rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope sustaining elevated freight and insurance costs. Key near-term catalysts include any new maritime incidents or de-escalation signals ahead of the August 24 week resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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