Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging just 8-13 ships in early-to-mid August versus a normal ~60. Renewed attacks on UAE-linked vessels, US warnings of sustained naval pressure, and persistent blockade conditions since late February have elevated insurance costs and prompted widespread rerouting or avoidance by tanker operators, compressing volumes. These dynamics underpin the 55.5% implied probability on the 25-49 bin and 33.5% on sub-25, with limited scope for near-term recovery absent a swift de-escalation ahead of the August 17 week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25-49 55%
少于25 37%
50-74 16%
100+ 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少于25
37%
25-49
55%
50-74
16%
75-99
11%
100+
10%
25-49 55%
少于25 37%
50-74 16%
100+ 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
少于25
$373 交易量
37%
25-49
$341 交易量
55%
50-74
$65 交易量
16%
75-99
$65 交易量
11%
100+
$45 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging just 8-13 ships in early-to-mid August versus a normal ~60. Renewed attacks on UAE-linked vessels, US warnings of sustained naval pressure, and persistent blockade conditions since late February have elevated insurance costs and prompted widespread rerouting or avoidance by tanker operators, compressing volumes. These dynamics underpin the 55.5% implied probability on the 25-49 bin and 33.5% on sub-25, with limited scope for near-term recovery absent a swift de-escalation ahead of the August 17 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
交易量
$884结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging just 8-13 ships in early-to-mid August versus a normal ~60. Renewed attacks on UAE-linked vessels, US warnings of sustained naval pressure, and persistent blockade conditions since late February have elevated insurance costs and prompted widespread rerouting or avoidance by tanker operators, compressing volumes. These dynamics underpin the 55.5% implied probability on the 25-49 bin and 33.5% on sub-25, with limited scope for near-term recovery absent a swift de-escalation ahead of the August 17 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$884结束日期
2026-08-23市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent vessel attacks have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits averaging just 8-13 ships in early-to-mid August versus a normal ~60. Renewed attacks on UAE-linked vessels, US warnings of sustained naval pressure, and persistent blockade conditions since late February have elevated insurance costs and prompted widespread rerouting or avoidance by tanker operators, compressing volumes. These dynamics underpin the 55.5% implied probability on the 25-49 bin and 33.5% on sub-25, with limited scope for near-term recovery absent a swift de-escalation ahead of the August 17 week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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