Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
是
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$712结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$712结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRussia’s maximalist demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, including full control of Donetsk, combined with ongoing military advances and explicit rejection of ceasefires or joint proposals, sustain the deep pause in negotiations that began after early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Kremlin statements in late August 2026 described talks as stalled, with officials dismissing European-Ukrainian security frameworks and insisting any settlement reflect battlefield realities. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no deal by October 31 reflects this entrenched impasse and the absence of scheduled summits or breakthroughs within the window. A sudden shift in Russian leadership priorities, major battlefield reversal, or renewed U.S. diplomatic push could still alter timelines, though current conditions indicate low likelihood of resolution before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题