Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because major candidates continue to tie normalization to unresolved conditions on Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia has reiterated that any deal requires an irreversible path toward a two-state outcome, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking civilian nuclear cooperation to accession. Recent regional alignments, including the Mecca Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, reflect alternative security frameworks that sidestep the Accords model. Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry remains the most recent addition, with limited momentum for follow-on signatories like Indonesia, Qatar, or Oman in the narrow remaining window. Diplomatic statements and stalled bilateral tracks underscore these structural barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because major candidates continue to tie normalization to unresolved conditions on Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia has reiterated that any deal requires an irreversible path toward a two-state outcome, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking civilian nuclear cooperation to accession. Recent regional alignments, including the Mecca Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, reflect alternative security frameworks that sidestep the Accords model. Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry remains the most recent addition, with limited momentum for follow-on signatories like Indonesia, Qatar, or Oman in the narrow remaining window. Diplomatic statements and stalled bilateral tracks underscore these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$832结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because major candidates continue to tie normalization to unresolved conditions on Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia has reiterated that any deal requires an irreversible path toward a two-state outcome, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking civilian nuclear cooperation to accession. Recent regional alignments, including the Mecca Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, reflect alternative security frameworks that sidestep the Accords model. Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry remains the most recent addition, with limited momentum for follow-on signatories like Indonesia, Qatar, or Oman in the narrow remaining window. Diplomatic statements and stalled bilateral tracks underscore these structural barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$832结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETTraders assign a 93.5% probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because major candidates continue to tie normalization to unresolved conditions on Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia has reiterated that any deal requires an irreversible path toward a two-state outcome, a stance unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking civilian nuclear cooperation to accession. Recent regional alignments, including the Mecca Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, reflect alternative security frameworks that sidestep the Accords model. Kazakhstan’s 2025 entry remains the most recent addition, with limited momentum for follow-on signatories like Indonesia, Qatar, or Oman in the narrow remaining window. Diplomatic statements and stalled bilateral tracks underscore these structural barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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