Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-12-30
6.00%
36%
5.80%
50%
5.70%
50%
5.65%
50%
5.60%
50%
5.55%
50%
5.50%
51%
5.45%
61%
5.40%
64%
$0.00 交易量
6.00%
$0 交易量
36%
5.80%
$0 交易量
50%
5.70%
$0 交易量
50%
5.65%
$0 交易量
50%
5.60%
$0 交易量
50%
5.55%
$0 交易量
50%
5.50%
$0 交易量
51%
5.45%
$0 交易量
61%
5.40%
$0 交易量
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETElevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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