Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息
84% 概率
$10,491 交易量
$10,491 交易量
2028-12-31
加息
84% 概率
$10,491 交易量
$10,491 交易量
2028-12-31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
交易量
$10,491结束日期
2028-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$10,491结束日期
2028-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETStrong August jobs data showing 162,000 payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the case for tighter policy, lifting market-implied odds of a September 15-16 hike to roughly 61%. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline PCE near 3.7% and core at 3.3%, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted the FOMC’s dot plot toward multiple 25-basis-point increases by year-end under Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders now price the federal funds rate path above 4% by December, reflecting resilient growth and reduced expectations for easing. Key near-term catalysts include next week’s CPI and PPI releases plus upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether inflation moderation or further labor-market strength determines the timing of any initial rate increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题