Persistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, are anchoring trader sentiment around one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 at 45% implied probability. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with July PCE readings showing total inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4%. Resilient labor market data, including a stable 4.2% unemployment rate and solid job gains, have lowered the threshold for tightening while recent FOMC projections and votes indicate growing support for at least one increase by year-end. Markets price modest further tightening versus a hold or cuts, though incoming September data and the next FOMC meeting could shift the balance between the leading one-hike, zero-hike, and two-hike outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 45%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3次（75个基点） 4.8%
$286,520 交易量
$286,520 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
29%
1 (25 bps)
45%
2 (50 bps)
22%
3次（75个基点）
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 45%
0 (0 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 22%
3次（75个基点） 4.8%
$286,520 交易量
$286,520 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
$100,784 交易量
29%
1 (25 bps)
$47,117 交易量
45%
2 (50 bps)
$68,637 交易量
22%
3次（75个基点）
$31,570 交易量
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 交易量
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, are anchoring trader sentiment around one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 at 45% implied probability. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with July PCE readings showing total inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4%. Resilient labor market data, including a stable 4.2% unemployment rate and solid job gains, have lowered the threshold for tightening while recent FOMC projections and votes indicate growing support for at least one increase by year-end. Markets price modest further tightening versus a hold or cuts, though incoming September data and the next FOMC meeting could shift the balance between the leading one-hike, zero-hike, and two-hike outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$286,520结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, are anchoring trader sentiment around one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 at 45% implied probability. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with July PCE readings showing total inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4%. Resilient labor market data, including a stable 4.2% unemployment rate and solid job gains, have lowered the threshold for tightening while recent FOMC projections and votes indicate growing support for at least one increase by year-end. Markets price modest further tightening versus a hold or cuts, though incoming September data and the next FOMC meeting could shift the balance between the leading one-hike, zero-hike, and two-hike outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$286,520结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETPersistent inflation pressures from energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a hawkish tilt under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, are anchoring trader sentiment around one 25-basis-point hike in 2026 at 45% implied probability. The federal funds rate has held at 3.50-3.75% since December 2025, with July PCE readings showing total inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4%. Resilient labor market data, including a stable 4.2% unemployment rate and solid job gains, have lowered the threshold for tightening while recent FOMC projections and votes indicate growing support for at least one increase by year-end. Markets price modest further tightening versus a hold or cuts, though incoming September data and the next FOMC meeting could shift the balance between the leading one-hike, zero-hike, and two-hike outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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