Trader sentiment assigns a 58% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the July–October FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market showing resilience in job growth and wage trends. Recent communications from officials have downplayed the need for near-term easing, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price limited cuts this year. The 39.5% probability on Other outcomes captures uncertainty around potential policy shifts, while low odds for sequences with cuts underscore caution ahead of September and October decisions. Upcoming CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC statement will serve as key catalysts for any repricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 交易量
$712,083 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 交易量
$712,083 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$236,075 交易量
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 交易量
<1%
Other
$310,878 交易量
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment assigns a 58% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the July–October FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market showing resilience in job growth and wage trends. Recent communications from officials have downplayed the need for near-term easing, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price limited cuts this year. The 39.5% probability on Other outcomes captures uncertainty around potential policy shifts, while low odds for sequences with cuts underscore caution ahead of September and October decisions. Upcoming CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC statement will serve as key catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$712,083结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment assigns a 58% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the July–October FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market showing resilience in job growth and wage trends. Recent communications from officials have downplayed the need for near-term easing, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price limited cuts this year. The 39.5% probability on Other outcomes captures uncertainty around potential policy shifts, while low odds for sequences with cuts underscore caution ahead of September and October decisions. Upcoming CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC statement will serve as key catalysts for any repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$712,083结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment assigns a 58% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the July–October FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target and a labor market showing resilience in job growth and wage trends. Recent communications from officials have downplayed the need for near-term easing, aligning with market-implied rate paths that price limited cuts this year. The 39.5% probability on Other outcomes captures uncertainty around potential policy shifts, while low odds for sequences with cuts underscore caution ahead of September and October decisions. Upcoming CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC statement will serve as key catalysts for any repricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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