Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient May jobs report showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 71% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders pricing these outcomes via real capital see limited scope for easing given the inflation trajectory and solid labor conditions, contrasting with softer core readings. The June 16-17 meeting, just days away, serves as the immediate catalyst, with CME FedWatch and related markets assigning near-98% odds of no change. Subsequent meetings face similar headwinds from ongoing price pressures, though any sharp labor market deterioration could alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$139 交易量
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 交易量
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 交易量
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 交易量
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 交易量
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 交易量
4%
Other
$169 交易量
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient May jobs report showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 71% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders pricing these outcomes via real capital see limited scope for easing given the inflation trajectory and solid labor conditions, contrasting with softer core readings. The June 16-17 meeting, just days away, serves as the immediate catalyst, with CME FedWatch and related markets assigning near-98% odds of no change. Subsequent meetings face similar headwinds from ongoing price pressures, though any sharp labor market deterioration could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$2,210结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient May jobs report showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 71% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders pricing these outcomes via real capital see limited scope for easing given the inflation trajectory and solid labor conditions, contrasting with softer core readings. The June 16-17 meeting, just days away, serves as the immediate catalyst, with CME FedWatch and related markets assigning near-98% odds of no change. Subsequent meetings face similar headwinds from ongoing price pressures, though any sharp labor market deterioration could alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$2,210结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient May jobs report showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and steady 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 71% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders pricing these outcomes via real capital see limited scope for easing given the inflation trajectory and solid labor conditions, contrasting with softer core readings. The June 16-17 meeting, just days away, serves as the immediate catalyst, with CME FedWatch and related markets assigning near-98% odds of no change. Subsequent meetings face similar headwinds from ongoing price pressures, though any sharp labor market deterioration could alter the path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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