The near-certain 98.3% market-implied probability against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflects the complete absence of active criminal proceedings following the Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. With no charges filed and judicial findings citing insufficient evidence, traders assign negligible odds to incarceration for the sitting Fed Chair amid standard institutional protections and historical precedent for senior monetary policymakers. While tail-risk scenarios such as unforeseen political shifts or revived regulatory scrutiny remain theoretically possible, they lack credible near-term catalysts capable of altering the current consensus.