The Department of Justice's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—centered on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and his June 2025 Senate testimony—remains the dominant factor keeping market-implied odds of federal charges extremely low. Courts had already quashed related subpoenas for lack of evidence, with rulings emphasizing no demonstrated criminal conduct beyond policy disagreements over interest rates. Traders price in negligible near-term risk given the absence of active proceedings, institutional norms protecting monetary policy independence, and the lack of new catalysts through late 2026. Any shift would require unexpected political developments or revived scrutiny, though none appear on the horizon before key resolution dates.