Recent strong August employment gains, with payrolls far exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate easing to around 4.1%, have reinforced labor market resilience and lifted near-term hike probabilities ahead of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation, with core PCE still above 3%, alongside the Fed's revised dot plot under Chair Kevin Warsh showing a median funds rate projection of 3.8% by year-end, underpins the competitive spread across Polymarket sequences. Traders weigh incoming CPI and PPI data against the central bank's data-dependent stance, where a single hot inflation print could shift consensus toward multiple 25-basis-point hikes while softer readings would favor repeated pauses at the current 3.50-3.75% target range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 28%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
暂停–加息–加息 12%
暂停–暂停–加息 12%
$10,897 交易量
$10,897 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
11%
加息–暂停–暂停
19%
连加三次息
5%
加息-加息-暂停
6%
暂停–暂停–加息
12%
连续三次按兵不动
28%
暂停–加息–加息
12%
暂停–加息–暂停
10%
其他
5%
连续三次按兵不动 28%
加息–暂停–暂停 19%
暂停–加息–加息 12%
暂停–暂停–加息 12%
$10,897 交易量
$10,897 交易量
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$314 交易量
11%
加息–暂停–暂停
$296 交易量
19%
连加三次息
$216 交易量
5%
加息-加息-暂停
$237 交易量
6%
暂停–暂停–加息
$253 交易量
12%
连续三次按兵不动
$8,928 交易量
28%
暂停–加息–加息
$237 交易量
12%
暂停–加息–暂停
$214 交易量
10%
其他
$203 交易量
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August employment gains, with payrolls far exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate easing to around 4.1%, have reinforced labor market resilience and lifted near-term hike probabilities ahead of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation, with core PCE still above 3%, alongside the Fed's revised dot plot under Chair Kevin Warsh showing a median funds rate projection of 3.8% by year-end, underpins the competitive spread across Polymarket sequences. Traders weigh incoming CPI and PPI data against the central bank's data-dependent stance, where a single hot inflation print could shift consensus toward multiple 25-basis-point hikes while softer readings would favor repeated pauses at the current 3.50-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$10,897结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August employment gains, with payrolls far exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate easing to around 4.1%, have reinforced labor market resilience and lifted near-term hike probabilities ahead of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation, with core PCE still above 3%, alongside the Fed's revised dot plot under Chair Kevin Warsh showing a median funds rate projection of 3.8% by year-end, underpins the competitive spread across Polymarket sequences. Traders weigh incoming CPI and PPI data against the central bank's data-dependent stance, where a single hot inflation print could shift consensus toward multiple 25-basis-point hikes while softer readings would favor repeated pauses at the current 3.50-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$10,897结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent strong August employment gains, with payrolls far exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate easing to around 4.1%, have reinforced labor market resilience and lifted near-term hike probabilities ahead of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation, with core PCE still above 3%, alongside the Fed's revised dot plot under Chair Kevin Warsh showing a median funds rate projection of 3.8% by year-end, underpins the competitive spread across Polymarket sequences. Traders weigh incoming CPI and PPI data against the central bank's data-dependent stance, where a single hot inflation print could shift consensus toward multiple 25-basis-point hikes while softer readings would favor repeated pauses at the current 3.50-3.75% target range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题