Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
5.10%
10%
5.05%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.82%
61%
$58 交易量
5.10%
$58 交易量
10%
5.05%
$0 交易量
50%
5.00%
$0 交易量
50%
4.97%
$0 交易量
50%
4.94%
$0 交易量
50%
4.91%
$0 交易量
50%
4.88%
$0 交易量
50%
4.85%
$0 交易量
50%
4.82%
$0 交易量
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$58结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$58结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETStrong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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