Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a post-heatwave cooldown, with high pressure yielding partly cloudy skies and lighter winds that cap the August 16 maximum near 29 °C in Paris. Afternoon temperatures hinge on residual warm advection versus increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, creating narrow uncertainty bands that keep 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes nearly even in trader-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show limited upside risk above 31 °C absent unexpected clear-sky amplification, while historical August variability around 24–28 °C baselines underscores why small forecast shifts could still resolve the close 29–30 °C contest before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日巴黎气温最高？
8月16日巴黎气温最高？
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
31°C 15%
28°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
11%
29°C
37%
30°C
39%
31°C
15%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
31°C 15%
28°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
$63 交易量
<1%
26°C
$142 交易量
1%
27°C
$78 交易量
3%
28°C
$338 交易量
11%
29°C
$396 交易量
37%
30°C
$367 交易量
39%
31°C
$261 交易量
15%
32°C
$96 交易量
2%
33°C
$72 交易量
1%
34°C
$47 交易量
1%
35°C or higher
$111 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a post-heatwave cooldown, with high pressure yielding partly cloudy skies and lighter winds that cap the August 16 maximum near 29 °C in Paris. Afternoon temperatures hinge on residual warm advection versus increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, creating narrow uncertainty bands that keep 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes nearly even in trader-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show limited upside risk above 31 °C absent unexpected clear-sky amplification, while historical August variability around 24–28 °C baselines underscores why small forecast shifts could still resolve the close 29–30 °C contest before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a post-heatwave cooldown, with high pressure yielding partly cloudy skies and lighter winds that cap the August 16 maximum near 29 °C in Paris. Afternoon temperatures hinge on residual warm advection versus increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, creating narrow uncertainty bands that keep 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes nearly even in trader-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show limited upside risk above 31 °C absent unexpected clear-sky amplification, while historical August variability around 24–28 °C baselines underscores why small forecast shifts could still resolve the close 29–30 °C contest before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,972结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETRecent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a post-heatwave cooldown, with high pressure yielding partly cloudy skies and lighter winds that cap the August 16 maximum near 29 °C in Paris. Afternoon temperatures hinge on residual warm advection versus increasing cloud cover and possible scattered showers, creating narrow uncertainty bands that keep 29 °C and 30 °C outcomes nearly even in trader-implied odds. Ensemble spreads show limited upside risk above 31 °C absent unexpected clear-sky amplification, while historical August variability around 24–28 °C baselines underscores why small forecast shifts could still resolve the close 29–30 °C contest before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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