Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has driven the 71.5% market-implied odds of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The June 2026 SEP revised the median end-2026 funds rate projection upward to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants anticipating tighter policy, reflecting a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. July’s hold drew three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while futures markets priced in elevated odds of a September move ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Recent disinflation signals in core PCE readings introduce some uncertainty, but the data-dependent path and upcoming August inflation release remain key swing factors for trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
72% 概率
$8,753,900 交易量
$8,753,900 交易量
2026-12-08
是
72% 概率
$8,753,900 交易量
$8,753,900 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has driven the 71.5% market-implied odds of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The June 2026 SEP revised the median end-2026 funds rate projection upward to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants anticipating tighter policy, reflecting a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. July’s hold drew three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while futures markets priced in elevated odds of a September move ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Recent disinflation signals in core PCE readings introduce some uncertainty, but the data-dependent path and upcoming August inflation release remain key swing factors for trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$8,753,900结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has driven the 71.5% market-implied odds of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The June 2026 SEP revised the median end-2026 funds rate projection upward to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants anticipating tighter policy, reflecting a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. July’s hold drew three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while futures markets priced in elevated odds of a September move ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Recent disinflation signals in core PCE readings introduce some uncertainty, but the data-dependent path and upcoming August inflation release remain key swing factors for trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,753,900结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, combined with a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has driven the 71.5% market-implied odds of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The June 2026 SEP revised the median end-2026 funds rate projection upward to 3.8% from 3.4%, with nine participants anticipating tighter policy, reflecting a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. July’s hold drew three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase, while futures markets priced in elevated odds of a September move ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Recent disinflation signals in core PCE readings introduce some uncertainty, but the data-dependent path and upcoming August inflation release remain key swing factors for trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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