Recent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September FOMC decisions. The June meeting delivered a unanimous hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range, with the Summary of Economic Projections marking up the median end-2026 federal funds rate to 3.8% and nine participants penciling in at least one hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.2% and solid GDP growth, support the pause baseline, while supply shocks and policy uncertainty keep hike risks priced in. Traders will closely watch incoming data ahead of the September meeting for any break in the deadlock.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 交易量
$834,477 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
50%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 交易量
$834,477 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$320,512 交易量
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,157 交易量
1%
Other
$358,931 交易量
50%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September FOMC decisions. The June meeting delivered a unanimous hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range, with the Summary of Economic Projections marking up the median end-2026 federal funds rate to 3.8% and nine participants penciling in at least one hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.2% and solid GDP growth, support the pause baseline, while supply shocks and policy uncertainty keep hike risks priced in. Traders will closely watch incoming data ahead of the September meeting for any break in the deadlock.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$834,477结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September FOMC decisions. The June meeting delivered a unanimous hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range, with the Summary of Economic Projections marking up the median end-2026 federal funds rate to 3.8% and nine participants penciling in at least one hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.2% and solid GDP growth, support the pause baseline, while supply shocks and policy uncertainty keep hike risks priced in. Traders will closely watch incoming data ahead of the September meeting for any break in the deadlock.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$834,477结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRecent inflation readings, including May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%, combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, have driven the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other outcomes for the June, July, and September FOMC decisions. The June meeting delivered a unanimous hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range, with the Summary of Economic Projections marking up the median end-2026 federal funds rate to 3.8% and nine participants penciling in at least one hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.2% and solid GDP growth, support the pause baseline, while supply shocks and policy uncertainty keep hike risks priced in. Traders will closely watch incoming data ahead of the September meeting for any break in the deadlock.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题