Recent economic data releases have created a near-even split in trader-implied probabilities for the December FOMC decision, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each priced at 44.5%. Persistent core inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient consumer spending and mixed labor market signals such as steady unemployment and moderating job growth, are driving the balanced odds. Market participants are weighing the risk that elevated price pressures could prompt a modest tightening against the possibility of steady policy amid cooling demand indicators. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI report and employment figures, along with any fresh Fed communications, are likely to shift the consensus ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 交易量
$534,969 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
无变化
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
无变化 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 交易量
$534,969 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 交易量
7%
无变化
$86,066 交易量
45%
25 bps increase
$138,632 交易量
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data releases have created a near-even split in trader-implied probabilities for the December FOMC decision, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each priced at 44.5%. Persistent core inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient consumer spending and mixed labor market signals such as steady unemployment and moderating job growth, are driving the balanced odds. Market participants are weighing the risk that elevated price pressures could prompt a modest tightening against the possibility of steady policy amid cooling demand indicators. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI report and employment figures, along with any fresh Fed communications, are likely to shift the consensus ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$534,969结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data releases have created a near-even split in trader-implied probabilities for the December FOMC decision, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each priced at 44.5%. Persistent core inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient consumer spending and mixed labor market signals such as steady unemployment and moderating job growth, are driving the balanced odds. Market participants are weighing the risk that elevated price pressures could prompt a modest tightening against the possibility of steady policy amid cooling demand indicators. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI report and employment figures, along with any fresh Fed communications, are likely to shift the consensus ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$534,969结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRecent economic data releases have created a near-even split in trader-implied probabilities for the December FOMC decision, with no change and a 25 basis point hike each priced at 44.5%. Persistent core inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside resilient consumer spending and mixed labor market signals such as steady unemployment and moderating job growth, are driving the balanced odds. Market participants are weighing the risk that elevated price pressures could prompt a modest tightening against the possibility of steady policy amid cooling demand indicators. Key upcoming releases, including the next CPI report and employment figures, along with any fresh Fed communications, are likely to shift the consensus ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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