Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,967 交易量
$534,967 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
无变化
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
无变化 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,967 交易量
$534,967 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 交易量
7%
无变化
$86,064 交易量
45%
25 bps increase
$138,632 交易量
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$534,967结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$534,967结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETElevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题