Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$27,983 交易量
$27,983 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·莱文（民主党）
95%
阿门·库迪安（共和党）
4%
$27,983 交易量
$27,983 交易量
2026-11-02
迈克·莱文（民主党）
$19,756 交易量
95%
阿门·库迪安（共和党）
$8,227 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$27,983结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$27,983结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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