Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,137 交易量
$14,137 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$14,137 交易量
$14,137 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$3,261 交易量
95%
共和党
$10,876 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$14,137结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,137结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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