Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte anchors the strong Republican position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat's established partisan lean and his prior general election margins above 60 percent shape trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. The June 2026 primary produced a low-profile Democratic opponent with limited fundraising visibility, leaving no evident competitive threat through early August. Historical voting patterns in this Central Valley-influenced district, combined with typical midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House, reinforce the current implied probability. Late developments that could still alter outcomes include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually sharp national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's structural Republican advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$59,838 交易量
$59,838 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$59,838 交易量
$59,838 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$28,127 交易量
93%
民主党
$31,711 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte anchors the strong Republican position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat's established partisan lean and his prior general election margins above 60 percent shape trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. The June 2026 primary produced a low-profile Democratic opponent with limited fundraising visibility, leaving no evident competitive threat through early August. Historical voting patterns in this Central Valley-influenced district, combined with typical midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House, reinforce the current implied probability. Late developments that could still alter outcomes include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually sharp national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$59,838结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte anchors the strong Republican position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat's established partisan lean and his prior general election margins above 60 percent shape trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. The June 2026 primary produced a low-profile Democratic opponent with limited fundraising visibility, leaving no evident competitive threat through early August. Historical voting patterns in this Central Valley-influenced district, combined with typical midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House, reinforce the current implied probability. Late developments that could still alter outcomes include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually sharp national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's structural Republican advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$59,838结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte anchors the strong Republican position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat's established partisan lean and his prior general election margins above 60 percent shape trader consensus around a 93 percent probability for the Republican nominee. The June 2026 primary produced a low-profile Democratic opponent with limited fundraising visibility, leaving no evident competitive threat through early August. Historical voting patterns in this Central Valley-influenced district, combined with typical midterm dynamics favoring the party out of the White House, reinforce the current implied probability. Late developments that could still alter outcomes include an unforeseen scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unusually sharp national Democratic surge capable of overcoming the district's structural Republican advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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