Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 44%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 5.8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
38%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
44%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
3%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
6%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
<1%
其他
<1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 44%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 5.8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$16,870 交易量
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$34,880 交易量
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$27,668 交易量
38%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$34,352 交易量
44%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$12,161 交易量
3%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$10,242 交易量
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$17,207 交易量
6%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$212,451 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$7,371 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$6,710 交易量
<1%
其他
$7,340 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$387,252结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$387,252结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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