Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 44%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 5.8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
38%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
44%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
3%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
6%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
<1%
其他
<1%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5% 44%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10% 38%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5% 5.8%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
卢拉·达席尔瓦15%+
$16,870 交易量
4%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 10-15%
$34,880 交易量
5%
卢拉·达席尔瓦5-10%
$27,668 交易量
38%
卢拉·达席尔瓦 <5%
$34,352 交易量
44%
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗10%+
$12,161 交易量
3%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 5-10%
$10,242 交易量
2%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 <5%
$17,207 交易量
6%
雷南·桑托斯胜利
$212,451 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯胜利
$7,371 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔胜利
$6,710 交易量
<1%
其他
$7,340 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$387,252结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$387,252结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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