Tesla’s limited California operations continue to rely on a standard charter-party carrier permit that mandates human safety drivers, as confirmed by the CPUC, rather than the dedicated DMV deployment or CPUC autonomous-vehicle passenger permits required for true robotaxis. The company holds only an entry-level testing permit with drivers and has logged negligible unsupervised autonomous miles in the state, while expanding driverless Cybercab service in Texas markets. With roughly four months remaining until year-end, the regulatory approval timeline, recent DMV enforcement emphasis, and Tesla’s pattern of shifting release schedules keep trader consensus heavily weighted toward “No” at 78% implied probability, though any surprise permit filing could still shift sentiment.