Tesla's Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger autonomous van concept in October 2024, shows no signs of advancing to order systems by the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects the vehicle's limited progress relative to the Cybercab robotaxi, which has entered early production at Giga Texas. Historical delays in Tesla's autonomous vehicle programs, regulatory certification needs for driverless operation, and manufacturing scale-up requirements for a larger platform all reinforce this view. A credible near-term catalyst would require an unexpected official announcement or accelerated prototype validation that shifts timelines ahead of typical industry patterns for such hardware.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$31,918 交易量
$31,918 交易量
2026-12-30
是
9% 機率
$31,918 交易量
$31,918 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger autonomous van concept in October 2024, shows no signs of advancing to order systems by the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects the vehicle's limited progress relative to the Cybercab robotaxi, which has entered early production at Giga Texas. Historical delays in Tesla's autonomous vehicle programs, regulatory certification needs for driverless operation, and manufacturing scale-up requirements for a larger platform all reinforce this view. A credible near-term catalyst would require an unexpected official announcement or accelerated prototype validation that shifts timelines ahead of typical industry patterns for such hardware.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$31,918結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla's Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger autonomous van concept in October 2024, shows no signs of advancing to order systems by the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects the vehicle's limited progress relative to the Cybercab robotaxi, which has entered early production at Giga Texas. Historical delays in Tesla's autonomous vehicle programs, regulatory certification needs for driverless operation, and manufacturing scale-up requirements for a larger platform all reinforce this view. A credible near-term catalyst would require an unexpected official announcement or accelerated prototype validation that shifts timelines ahead of typical industry patterns for such hardware.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$31,918結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger autonomous van concept in October 2024, shows no signs of advancing to order systems by the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects the vehicle's limited progress relative to the Cybercab robotaxi, which has entered early production at Giga Texas. Historical delays in Tesla's autonomous vehicle programs, regulatory certification needs for driverless operation, and manufacturing scale-up requirements for a larger platform all reinforce this view. A credible near-term catalyst would require an unexpected official announcement or accelerated prototype validation that shifts timelines ahead of typical industry patterns for such hardware.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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