Amazon's recent breach of the $3 trillion market cap threshold, fueled by AWS revenue growth exceeding 37% amid surging AI demand, underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the $3.5–4.0 trillion and $2.0–2.5 trillion buckets. Elevated capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, recent analyst target raises, and resilient e-commerce margins support upside scenarios, while antitrust pressures, insider share sales, and questions over sustained monetization create downside risks. With resolution only months away, implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether near-term earnings momentum and sector benchmarks can propel further expansion or yield to competitive and macroeconomic headwinds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.50-3.00兆美元 44%
3.50～4.00兆美元 42%
2.00-2.50兆美元 39%
低於2.00兆美元 35%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低於2.00兆美元
35%
2.00-2.50兆美元
39%
2.50-3.00兆美元
31%
3.00兆至3.50兆美元
31%
3.50～4.00兆美元
42%
4.00-4.50兆美元
21%
4.50兆美元+
21%
2.50-3.00兆美元 44%
3.50～4.00兆美元 42%
2.00-2.50兆美元 39%
低於2.00兆美元 35%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
低於2.00兆美元
$0 交易量
35%
2.00-2.50兆美元
$0 交易量
39%
2.50-3.00兆美元
$233 交易量
31%
3.00兆至3.50兆美元
$0 交易量
31%
3.50～4.00兆美元
$0 交易量
42%
4.00-4.50兆美元
$0 交易量
21%
4.50兆美元+
$0 交易量
21%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon's recent breach of the $3 trillion market cap threshold, fueled by AWS revenue growth exceeding 37% amid surging AI demand, underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the $3.5–4.0 trillion and $2.0–2.5 trillion buckets. Elevated capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, recent analyst target raises, and resilient e-commerce margins support upside scenarios, while antitrust pressures, insider share sales, and questions over sustained monetization create downside risks. With resolution only months away, implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether near-term earnings momentum and sector benchmarks can propel further expansion or yield to competitive and macroeconomic headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
交易量
$233結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon's recent breach of the $3 trillion market cap threshold, fueled by AWS revenue growth exceeding 37% amid surging AI demand, underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the $3.5–4.0 trillion and $2.0–2.5 trillion buckets. Elevated capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, recent analyst target raises, and resilient e-commerce margins support upside scenarios, while antitrust pressures, insider share sales, and questions over sustained monetization create downside risks. With resolution only months away, implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether near-term earnings momentum and sector benchmarks can propel further expansion or yield to competitive and macroeconomic headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
交易量
$233結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon's recent breach of the $3 trillion market cap threshold, fueled by AWS revenue growth exceeding 37% amid surging AI demand, underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the $3.5–4.0 trillion and $2.0–2.5 trillion buckets. Elevated capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, recent analyst target raises, and resilient e-commerce margins support upside scenarios, while antitrust pressures, insider share sales, and questions over sustained monetization create downside risks. With resolution only months away, implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether near-term earnings momentum and sector benchmarks can propel further expansion or yield to competitive and macroeconomic headwinds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions