Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.0% 41.1%
3.75% 23.0%
4.25% 19.8%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,795,512 交易量
$6,795,512 交易量
2026-12-08
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
<1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
23%
4.0%
41%
4.25%
20%
大於或等於4.5%
5%
4.0% 41.1%
3.75% 23.0%
4.25% 19.8%
3.5% 7.8%
$6,795,512 交易量
$6,795,512 交易量
2026-12-08
≤1.0%
$251,869 交易量
1%
1.25
$149,914 交易量
1%
1.5%
$147,387 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$149,973 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$265,101 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$88,877 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$175,659 交易量
1%
2.75%
$62,261 交易量
<1%
3.0%
$489,647 交易量
<1%
3.25%
$67,053 交易量
<1%
3.5%
$203,389 交易量
8%
3.75%
$533,159 交易量
23%
4.0%
$1,370,913 交易量
41%
4.25%
$430,797 交易量
20%
大於或等於4.5%
$2,409,514 交易量
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,795,512結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETThe FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,795,512結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETTraders see the federal funds rate ending 2026 near 4.0% as the most likely outcome because recent FOMC projections and data point to sticky inflation keeping policy tighter than earlier expected. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections lifted the median end-2026 rate forecast to 3.8% from 3.4%, citing PCE inflation at 3.6% amid energy and supply shocks linked to Middle East developments. The Fed has held the target range at 3.5–3.75% through mid-2026 with growing internal divisions, including July dissents favoring a hike, while solid GDP growth and a stable labor market around 4.3% unemployment reduce pressure for easing. This environment has shifted market pricing toward modest tightening or a higher terminal rate by year-end, consistent with the leading Polymarket probabilities clustering between 3.75% and 4.25%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions