**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped. The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
42%
Dolly
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
哈娜
5%
伊薩亞斯
5%
約瑟芬
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
娜娜
8%
奧馬爾
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
5%
其他
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
最新
最新
2026-12-01
Cristobal
$162 交易量
42%
Dolly
$86 交易量
30%
Edouard
$222 交易量
19%
Fay
$72 交易量
5%
Gonzalo
$72 交易量
4%
哈娜
$73 交易量
5%
伊薩亞斯
$88 交易量
5%
約瑟芬
$55 交易量
5%
Kyle
$94 交易量
4%
Leah
$59 交易量
3%
Marco
$107 交易量
9%
娜娜
$51 交易量
8%
奧馬爾
$63 交易量
9%
Paulette
$67 交易量
10%
Rene
$63 交易量
5%
Sally
$131 交易量
3%
Teddy
$63 交易量
5%
Vicky
$90 交易量
8%
Wilfred
$118 交易量
5%
其他
$63 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped.
The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold.
Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
交易量
$1,801結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped.
The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold.
Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
交易量
$1,801結束日期
2026-12-02市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cristobal leads market-implied odds at 42% for the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 because it is the next name on the official list after Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed in June and July.** Dolly follows at 30% and Edouard at 19.5%, reflecting the alphabetical sequence and the low probability that an earlier unused name would be skipped. The season remains quiet due to El Niño-driven increases in vertical wind shear across the main development region, which has suppressed intensification so far. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts both anticipated a below-normal year (roughly 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes), consistent with only two named systems through early August. No storms have yet reached the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson threshold. Recent NHC monitoring shows no active systems, keeping focus on the August–September peak window when climatological activity historically rises. Model guidance and steering patterns will determine whether the next disturbance organizes and intensifies rapidly enough to become Cristobal or a later name. Traders are pricing the strong historical tendency for the first hurricane to occur from the next available name once conditions become more favorable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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