McConnell’s prolonged recovery from a June 2026 fall and subsequent hospitalization continues to shape trader assessments, leaving him without a Senate floor vote since June 11 while he undergoes physical therapy and remains under medical supervision. Recent proxy participation in committee markups signals incremental activity but has not yet extended to full chamber votes, creating uncertainty over whether he will meet the September 30 threshold during the remaining session window. His decision not to seek reelection and focus on completing the current term, combined with historical patterns of extended senator absences due to health, further balances the closely contested odds. Any new medical clearance, Senate scheduling demands, or additional health updates could shift the implied probability in either direction before the cutoff.