**Recent model consensus points to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 17 clustering near 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Official guidance from sources including the Global Forecast System and regional analyses shows a stable easterly flow with light winds (generally 5–10 km/h) and high humidity (65–75 %) under mostly cloudy skies or light drizzle. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping below the low 20s °C. Early-morning readings on September 17 are projected around 22 °C before gradual warming to daytime highs near 28–29 °C. No strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative event is expected, which explains why probabilities for 21 °C or lower remain modest (under 15 % combined) while 24 °C and above receive limited support. Historical September climatology for Shanghai places typical overnight lows in the 22–24 °C range during this period, providing additional context for the current market-implied distribution. Updated model runs and any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 12–24 hours will be the key variables traders monitor before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月17日上海最低溫度？
9月17日上海最低溫度？
23°C 46%
22°C 29%
24°C 9%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
17°C或以下
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
13%
22°C
29%
23°C
46%
24°C
9%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C或以上
<1%
23°C 46%
22°C 29%
24°C 9%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-17
17°C或以下
$89 交易量
<1%
18°C
$89 交易量
<1%
19°C
$93 交易量
1%
20°C
$617 交易量
2%
21°C
$571 交易量
13%
22°C
$405 交易量
29%
23°C
$1,682 交易量
46%
24°C
$1,392 交易量
9%
25°C
$93 交易量
2%
26°C
$89 交易量
<1%
27°C或以上
$89 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus points to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 17 clustering near 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Official guidance from sources including the Global Forecast System and regional analyses shows a stable easterly flow with light winds (generally 5–10 km/h) and high humidity (65–75 %) under mostly cloudy skies or light drizzle. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping below the low 20s °C. Early-morning readings on September 17 are projected around 22 °C before gradual warming to daytime highs near 28–29 °C.
No strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative event is expected, which explains why probabilities for 21 °C or lower remain modest (under 15 % combined) while 24 °C and above receive limited support. Historical September climatology for Shanghai places typical overnight lows in the 22–24 °C range during this period, providing additional context for the current market-implied distribution. Updated model runs and any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 12–24 hours will be the key variables traders monitor before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$5,208結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus points to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 17 clustering near 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Official guidance from sources including the Global Forecast System and regional analyses shows a stable easterly flow with light winds (generally 5–10 km/h) and high humidity (65–75 %) under mostly cloudy skies or light drizzle. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping below the low 20s °C. Early-morning readings on September 17 are projected around 22 °C before gradual warming to daytime highs near 28–29 °C.
No strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative event is expected, which explains why probabilities for 21 °C or lower remain modest (under 15 % combined) while 24 °C and above receive limited support. Historical September climatology for Shanghai places typical overnight lows in the 22–24 °C range during this period, providing additional context for the current market-implied distribution. Updated model runs and any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 12–24 hours will be the key variables traders monitor before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,208結束日期
2026-09-17市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Recent model consensus points to overnight lows in Shanghai on September 17 clustering near 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Official guidance from sources including the Global Forecast System and regional analyses shows a stable easterly flow with light winds (generally 5–10 km/h) and high humidity (65–75 %) under mostly cloudy skies or light drizzle. These conditions limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping below the low 20s °C. Early-morning readings on September 17 are projected around 22 °C before gradual warming to daytime highs near 28–29 °C. No strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative event is expected, which explains why probabilities for 21 °C or lower remain modest (under 15 % combined) while 24 °C and above receive limited support. Historical September climatology for Shanghai places typical overnight lows in the 22–24 °C range during this period, providing additional context for the current market-implied distribution. Updated model runs and any shift in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 12–24 hours will be the key variables traders monitor before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions