Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, near the long-term average low of ~13°C, under post-frontal stabilization with partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points near 8–10°C that limit extreme radiative cooling. These conditions favor modest overnight heat loss from the boundary layer without strong subsidence or clear-sky enhancement. Market-implied odds, however, assign over 90% combined probability to 9°C or below despite the forecasts, reflecting trader focus on potential model underestimation of cooling rates, variable cloud cover, or localized mixing differences that could drop readings by several degrees. Upcoming high-resolution runs and station observations will clarify whether boundary-layer processes push the outcome toward the cooler tail of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日慕尼黑最低溫度？
8月24日慕尼黑最低溫度？
6°C or below 37%
7°C 29%
9°C 27%
8°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
6°C or below
37%
7°C
29%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
10%
11°C
10%
12°C
9%
13°C
8%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
1%
6°C or below 37%
7°C 29%
9°C 27%
8°C 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
6°C or below
$5 交易量
37%
7°C
$0 交易量
29%
8°C
$0 交易量
27%
9°C
$0 交易量
27%
10°C
$0 交易量
10%
11°C
$0 交易量
10%
12°C
$0 交易量
9%
13°C
$65 交易量
8%
14°C
$135 交易量
1%
15°C
$210 交易量
<1%
16°C or higher
$134 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, near the long-term average low of ~13°C, under post-frontal stabilization with partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points near 8–10°C that limit extreme radiative cooling. These conditions favor modest overnight heat loss from the boundary layer without strong subsidence or clear-sky enhancement. Market-implied odds, however, assign over 90% combined probability to 9°C or below despite the forecasts, reflecting trader focus on potential model underestimation of cooling rates, variable cloud cover, or localized mixing differences that could drop readings by several degrees. Upcoming high-resolution runs and station observations will clarify whether boundary-layer processes push the outcome toward the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
交易量
$549結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, near the long-term average low of ~13°C, under post-frontal stabilization with partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points near 8–10°C that limit extreme radiative cooling. These conditions favor modest overnight heat loss from the boundary layer without strong subsidence or clear-sky enhancement. Market-implied odds, however, assign over 90% combined probability to 9°C or below despite the forecasts, reflecting trader focus on potential model underestimation of cooling rates, variable cloud cover, or localized mixing differences that could drop readings by several degrees. Upcoming high-resolution runs and station observations will clarify whether boundary-layer processes push the outcome toward the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$549結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETModel consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to a Munich minimum of 11–14°C on August 24, near the long-term average low of ~13°C, under post-frontal stabilization with partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and dew points near 8–10°C that limit extreme radiative cooling. These conditions favor modest overnight heat loss from the boundary layer without strong subsidence or clear-sky enhancement. Market-implied odds, however, assign over 90% combined probability to 9°C or below despite the forecasts, reflecting trader focus on potential model underestimation of cooling rates, variable cloud cover, or localized mixing differences that could drop readings by several degrees. Upcoming high-resolution runs and station observations will clarify whether boundary-layer processes push the outcome toward the cooler tail of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions