Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate a nighttime low of 9–11°C in Moscow on August 30 under variable cloud cover, light southerly winds, and modest precipitation chances, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average minimum of 11°C for the date. This consensus, reinforced by model runs showing limited radiational cooling due to cloudiness and advection of milder maritime air, underpins the market's strong 98% implied probability for 11°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show low dispersion around this range, with historical records confirming extremes below 7°C occur only under rare clear, northerly flow conditions not currently indicated. Updated model outputs or unexpected clearing overnight represent the primary variables that could shift the realized minimum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日莫斯科最低溫度?
11°C 98%
10°C 15.3%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$1,663 交易量
$1,663 交易量
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
15%
11°C
98%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 98%
10°C 15.3%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$1,663 交易量
$1,663 交易量
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
15%
11°C
98%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate a nighttime low of 9–11°C in Moscow on August 30 under variable cloud cover, light southerly winds, and modest precipitation chances, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average minimum of 11°C for the date. This consensus, reinforced by model runs showing limited radiational cooling due to cloudiness and advection of milder maritime air, underpins the market's strong 98% implied probability for 11°C. Official observations and ensemble guidance show low dispersion around this range, with historical records confirming extremes below 7°C occur only under rare clear, northerly flow conditions not currently indicated. Updated model outputs or unexpected clearing overnight represent the primary variables that could shift the realized minimum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions