**Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, dominates conditions for Manila on August 31, 2026.** Official PAGASA guidance forecasts a minimum of 24°C and maximum of 28°C with an 80% rain chance, while multiple models show overnight lows clustering between 24–27°C amid high humidity (80–90%), moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers. Cloudy skies and moisture from the monsoon limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply, while daytime heating remains suppressed by frequent rain. Historical August climatology for Manila places typical minima near 24–26°C, providing a baseline that aligns with current ensemble outputs. Traders appear to weigh PAGASA’s lower-end guidance against slightly warmer model runs, producing tightly bunched implied probabilities across 24–27°C. Minor shifts in rain timing, wind strength, or monsoon surge intensity could nudge the recorded low at official stations within this narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
8月31日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
26°C 28%
24°C 27%
27°C 27%
23°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
21°C or below
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
26%
24°C
27%
25°C
26%
26°C
28%
27°C
27%
28°C
26%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或以上
<1%
26°C 28%
24°C 27%
27°C 27%
23°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
21°C or below
$130 交易量
2%
22°C
$252 交易量
1%
23°C
$0 交易量
26%
24°C
$0 交易量
27%
25°C
$0 交易量
26%
26°C
$0 交易量
28%
27°C
$0 交易量
27%
28°C
$0 交易量
26%
29°C
$660 交易量
<1%
30°C
$655 交易量
<1%
31°C或以上
$408 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, dominates conditions for Manila on August 31, 2026.** Official PAGASA guidance forecasts a minimum of 24°C and maximum of 28°C with an 80% rain chance, while multiple models show overnight lows clustering between 24–27°C amid high humidity (80–90%), moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers.
Cloudy skies and moisture from the monsoon limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply, while daytime heating remains suppressed by frequent rain. Historical August climatology for Manila places typical minima near 24–26°C, providing a baseline that aligns with current ensemble outputs. Traders appear to weigh PAGASA’s lower-end guidance against slightly warmer model runs, producing tightly bunched implied probabilities across 24–27°C. Minor shifts in rain timing, wind strength, or monsoon surge intensity could nudge the recorded low at official stations within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$2,105結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, dominates conditions for Manila on August 31, 2026.** Official PAGASA guidance forecasts a minimum of 24°C and maximum of 28°C with an 80% rain chance, while multiple models show overnight lows clustering between 24–27°C amid high humidity (80–90%), moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers.
Cloudy skies and moisture from the monsoon limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply, while daytime heating remains suppressed by frequent rain. Historical August climatology for Manila places typical minima near 24–26°C, providing a baseline that aligns with current ensemble outputs. Traders appear to weigh PAGASA’s lower-end guidance against slightly warmer model runs, producing tightly bunched implied probabilities across 24–27°C. Minor shifts in rain timing, wind strength, or monsoon surge intensity could nudge the recorded low at official stations within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,105結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET**Persistent southwest monsoon activity, enhanced by Tropical Depression Pilandok east of northern Luzon, dominates conditions for Manila on August 31, 2026.** Official PAGASA guidance forecasts a minimum of 24°C and maximum of 28°C with an 80% rain chance, while multiple models show overnight lows clustering between 24–27°C amid high humidity (80–90%), moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds, and widespread cloud cover with scattered showers. Cloudy skies and moisture from the monsoon limit radiational cooling overnight, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply, while daytime heating remains suppressed by frequent rain. Historical August climatology for Manila places typical minima near 24–26°C, providing a baseline that aligns with current ensemble outputs. Traders appear to weigh PAGASA’s lower-end guidance against slightly warmer model runs, producing tightly bunched implied probabilities across 24–27°C. Minor shifts in rain timing, wind strength, or monsoon surge intensity could nudge the recorded low at official stations within this narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions