Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月1日馬德裏最低氣溫？
16°C or below 46%
17°C 30%
18°C 28%
19°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
16°C or below
46%
17°C
30%
18°C
28%
19°C
18%
20°C
13%
21°C
12%
22°C
7%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 46%
17°C 30%
18°C 28%
19°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
16°C or below
$0 交易量
46%
17°C
$0 交易量
30%
18°C
$0 交易量
28%
19°C
$0 交易量
18%
20°C
$0 交易量
13%
21°C
$0 交易量
12%
22°C
$0 交易量
7%
23°C
$0 交易量
2%
24°C
$0 交易量
3%
25°C
$10 交易量
4%
26°C or higher
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate overnight lows in Madrid of 19–21°C on September 1 under persistent high-pressure stability and clear skies, with limited radiative cooling due to warm advection from the south. This aligns with AEMET's above-normal temperature outlook for early September and historical averages near 17.8°C, making 16–18°C outcomes the market leaders at a combined ~78% implied probability while capping warmer scenarios. Short-range model consensus shows minimal precipitation or frontal influence through the period, though slight downward revisions in recent runs have sustained trader focus on the lower end of the distribution ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions