Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, indicate a minimum overnight temperature of 23°C for Chengdu on August 30, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 18–20°C. This aligns with climatological norms for late August in the Sichuan Basin, where radiative cooling under moderate humidity typically produces lows in the low- to mid-20s°C. The 93% market-implied probability for 23°C reflects trader confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions and limited model spread. Deviations could arise from localized urban heat island effects, unexpected wind shifts enhancing mixing, or revisions in final observational data from official stations, though such shifts remain low-probability given current verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日成都最低溫？
8月30日成都最低溫？
23°C 99%
21°C 9%
22°C 5%
20°C 2%
$2,269 交易量
$2,269 交易量
2026-08-30
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
9%
22°C
5%
23°C
99%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 99%
21°C 9%
22°C 5%
20°C 2%
$2,269 交易量
$2,269 交易量
2026-08-30
18°C or below
$195 交易量
1%
19°C
$246 交易量
1%
20°C
$39 交易量
2%
21°C
$34 交易量
9%
22°C
$44 交易量
5%
23°C
$106 交易量
99%
24°C
$305 交易量
<1%
25°C
$382 交易量
1%
26°C
$187 交易量
1%
27°C
$310 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$420 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, indicate a minimum overnight temperature of 23°C for Chengdu on August 30, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 18–20°C. This aligns with climatological norms for late August in the Sichuan Basin, where radiative cooling under moderate humidity typically produces lows in the low- to mid-20s°C. The 93% market-implied probability for 23°C reflects trader confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions and limited model spread. Deviations could arise from localized urban heat island effects, unexpected wind shifts enhancing mixing, or revisions in final observational data from official stations, though such shifts remain low-probability given current verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,269結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, indicate a minimum overnight temperature of 23°C for Chengdu on August 30, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 18–20°C. This aligns with climatological norms for late August in the Sichuan Basin, where radiative cooling under moderate humidity typically produces lows in the low- to mid-20s°C. The 93% market-implied probability for 23°C reflects trader confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions and limited model spread. Deviations could arise from localized urban heat island effects, unexpected wind shifts enhancing mixing, or revisions in final observational data from official stations, though such shifts remain low-probability given current verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,269結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, indicate a minimum overnight temperature of 23°C for Chengdu on August 30, 2026, under partly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 18–20°C. This aligns with climatological norms for late August in the Sichuan Basin, where radiative cooling under moderate humidity typically produces lows in the low- to mid-20s°C. The 93% market-implied probability for 23°C reflects trader confidence in these stable atmospheric conditions and limited model spread. Deviations could arise from localized urban heat island effects, unexpected wind shifts enhancing mixing, or revisions in final observational data from official stations, though such shifts remain low-probability given current verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions