Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月21日安卡拉的最低溫度？
9月21日安卡拉的最低溫度？
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
17%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
19%
16°C
11%
17°C
7%
18°C
5%
19°C
4%
20°C或更高
4%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
10°C或以下
$0 交易量
17%
11°C
$0 交易量
39%
12°C
$0 交易量
40%
13°C
$0 交易量
40%
14°C
$0 交易量
40%
15°C
$0 交易量
19%
16°C
$0 交易量
11%
17°C
$0 交易量
7%
18°C
$0 交易量
5%
19°C
$0 交易量
4%
20°C或更高
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecast consensus from models including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Ankara on September 21 near 13–14 °C, with the market’s tight clustering around 11–14 °C reflecting ensemble spread and limited differentiation among runs. Primary drivers include nocturnal radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds that limit boundary-layer mixing, and Ankara’s plateau elevation near 900 m, which favors modest overnight drops. Dew-point values near 10–12 °C and surface pressure around 1018–1020 hPa support efficient heat loss after sunset, while any increase in low-level cloud or wind would raise the low by 1–2 °C. Updated model guidance and official Turkish Meteorological Service briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions