Recent El Niño conditions and elevated sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled above-average tropical cyclone formation and intensification through July 2026, with multiple landfalls already recorded including Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 7–9 total landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly seven, driven by favorable steering patterns and prolonged ocean dwell times that allow greater strengthening before coastal approach. With the peak August–September window still ahead and model consensus showing continued activity, trader odds cluster tightly between five and greater than eight because small shifts in late-season genesis, track recurvature, or intensity thresholds could easily alter the final count by one or two events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年，有多少熱帶氣旋會在中國登陸？
2026年，有多少熱帶氣旋會在中國登陸？
超過8個 49%
8 48%
7 45%
6 43%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
少於5個
39%
5
41%
6
43%
7
45%
8
48%
超過8個
49%
超過8個 49%
8 48%
7 45%
6 43%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
少於5個
$0 交易量
39%
5
$0 交易量
41%
6
$0 交易量
43%
7
$0 交易量
45%
8
$0 交易量
48%
超過8個
$0 交易量
49%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent El Niño conditions and elevated sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled above-average tropical cyclone formation and intensification through July 2026, with multiple landfalls already recorded including Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 7–9 total landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly seven, driven by favorable steering patterns and prolonged ocean dwell times that allow greater strengthening before coastal approach. With the peak August–September window still ahead and model consensus showing continued activity, trader odds cluster tightly between five and greater than eight because small shifts in late-season genesis, track recurvature, or intensity thresholds could easily alter the final count by one or two events.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
市場開放時間： Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-06-30市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Recent El Niño conditions and elevated sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled above-average tropical cyclone formation and intensification through July 2026, with multiple landfalls already recorded including Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 7–9 total landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly seven, driven by favorable steering patterns and prolonged ocean dwell times that allow greater strengthening before coastal approach. With the peak August–September window still ahead and model consensus showing continued activity, trader odds cluster tightly between five and greater than eight because small shifts in late-season genesis, track recurvature, or intensity thresholds could easily alter the final count by one or two events.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-06-30市場開放時間
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETRecent El Niño conditions and elevated sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific have fueled above-average tropical cyclone formation and intensification through July 2026, with multiple landfalls already recorded including Super Typhoon Bavi in Zhejiang and Typhoon Noul in Guangdong. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 7–9 total landfalls for the year, near or slightly above the long-term average of roughly seven, driven by favorable steering patterns and prolonged ocean dwell times that allow greater strengthening before coastal approach. With the peak August–September window still ahead and model consensus showing continued activity, trader odds cluster tightly between five and greater than eight because small shifts in late-season genesis, track recurvature, or intensity thresholds could easily alter the final count by one or two events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions