**Trader consensus favoring 10-12 Democratic House incumbent primary losses reflects an unusually active 2026 primary cycle shaped by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and redistricting effects.** Multiple long-serving members, including Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, fell to left-leaning or younger challengers earlier in the year, often backed by Democratic Socialists of America-aligned groups or local progressive networks. Redistricting-driven member-on-member contests in Texas added further defeats, while anti-establishment sentiment and policy divides over issues such as foreign aid contributed to several upsets. With additional primaries and runoffs scheduled through September and into fall, traders appear to anticipate several more losses before the cycle closes, placing the 10-12 band well ahead of lower or higher ranges in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於10-12 86.4%
13-15 7.8%
7-9 1.8%
$51,319 交易量
$51,319 交易量
7-9
2%
10-12
86%
13-15
8%
10-12 86.4%
13-15 7.8%
7-9 1.8%
$51,319 交易量
$51,319 交易量
7-9
$14,599 交易量
2%
10-12
$11,153 交易量
86%
13-15
$5,115 交易量
8%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus favoring 10-12 Democratic House incumbent primary losses reflects an unusually active 2026 primary cycle shaped by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and redistricting effects.** Multiple long-serving members, including Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, fell to left-leaning or younger challengers earlier in the year, often backed by Democratic Socialists of America-aligned groups or local progressive networks. Redistricting-driven member-on-member contests in Texas added further defeats, while anti-establishment sentiment and policy divides over issues such as foreign aid contributed to several upsets. With additional primaries and runoffs scheduled through September and into fall, traders appear to anticipate several more losses before the cycle closes, placing the 10-12 band well ahead of lower or higher ranges in current pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市場開放時間： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
交易量
$51,319市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus favoring 10-12 Democratic House incumbent primary losses reflects an unusually active 2026 primary cycle shaped by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and redistricting effects.** Multiple long-serving members, including Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, fell to left-leaning or younger challengers earlier in the year, often backed by Democratic Socialists of America-aligned groups or local progressive networks. Redistricting-driven member-on-member contests in Texas added further defeats, while anti-establishment sentiment and policy divides over issues such as foreign aid contributed to several upsets. With additional primaries and runoffs scheduled through September and into fall, traders appear to anticipate several more losses before the cycle closes, placing the 10-12 band well ahead of lower or higher ranges in current pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$51,319市場開放時間
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET**Trader consensus favoring 10-12 Democratic House incumbent primary losses reflects an unusually active 2026 primary cycle shaped by progressive challenges, generational turnover, and redistricting effects.** Multiple long-serving members, including Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, and John Larson in Connecticut, fell to left-leaning or younger challengers earlier in the year, often backed by Democratic Socialists of America-aligned groups or local progressive networks. Redistricting-driven member-on-member contests in Texas added further defeats, while anti-establishment sentiment and policy divides over issues such as foreign aid contributed to several upsets. With additional primaries and runoffs scheduled through September and into fall, traders appear to anticipate several more losses before the cycle closes, placing the 10-12 band well ahead of lower or higher ranges in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions