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icon for 哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？
選舉·美國大選

哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？

icon for 哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？
選舉·美國大選

哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？

Polymarket

$2,066,601 交易量

Polymarket

$2,066,601 交易量

icon for 民主黨

民主黨

$948,334 交易量

59%

icon for 共和黨

共和黨

$1,118,267 交易量

42%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Democratic traders hold a 58.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, ahead of Republicans at 41.5%, largely due to anticipated Democratic performance in the 2026 midterms and historical patterns favoring the opposition party after four years of unified Republican control of the White House. With Donald Trump term-limited, early positioning among potential nominees—including Gavin Newsom and others on the Democratic side versus J.D. Vance on the Republican side—has begun, while approval trends, economic conditions, and legislative outcomes through 2026 could further shift voter coalitions in swing states. The upcoming midterm contests serve as the next major catalyst that could alter these probabilities before primary season intensifies.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
交易量
$2,066,601
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Democratic traders hold a 58.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, ahead of Republicans at 41.5%, largely due to anticipated Democratic performance in the 2026 midterms and historical patterns favoring the opposition party after four years of unified Republican control of the White House. With Donald Trump term-limited, early positioning among potential nominees—including Gavin Newsom and others on the Democratic side versus J.D. Vance on the Republican side—has begun, while approval trends, economic conditions, and legislative outcomes through 2026 could further shift voter coalitions in swing states. The upcoming midterm contests serve as the next major catalyst that could alter these probabilities before primary season intensifies.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
交易量
$2,066,601
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨" at 59%, followed by "共和黨" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" has generated $2.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" is "民主黨" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "共和黨" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.