Recent short-range forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on August 2 likely between 25–28°C, with trader consensus centering on 25°C and 26°C due to model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiating factors include the strength of a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear to partly cloudy skies, versus potential for increased low-level moisture or light northwesterly flow that could limit afternoon heating by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Warsaw and precise solar insolation under variable cloud cover further modulate the maximum, while historical August baselines around 23–26°C provide context for why extremes above 27°C or below 24°C remain low-probability outcomes in the market. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月2日華沙的最高溫度？
8月2日華沙的最高溫度？
25°C 36%
26°C 28%
24°C 18%
27°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
18%
25°C
36%
26°C
28%
27°C
11%
28°C或更高
4%
25°C 36%
26°C 28%
24°C 18%
27°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
18°C或以下
$133 交易量
<1%
19°C
$213 交易量
<1%
20°C
$254 交易量
<1%
21°C
$110 交易量
1%
22°C
$10 交易量
2%
23°C
$246 交易量
5%
24°C
$411 交易量
18%
25°C
$247 交易量
36%
26°C
$251 交易量
28%
27°C
$191 交易量
11%
28°C或更高
$935 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on August 2 likely between 25–28°C, with trader consensus centering on 25°C and 26°C due to model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiating factors include the strength of a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear to partly cloudy skies, versus potential for increased low-level moisture or light northwesterly flow that could limit afternoon heating by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Warsaw and precise solar insolation under variable cloud cover further modulate the maximum, while historical August baselines around 23–26°C provide context for why extremes above 27°C or below 24°C remain low-probability outcomes in the market. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$3,000結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on August 2 likely between 25–28°C, with trader consensus centering on 25°C and 26°C due to model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiating factors include the strength of a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear to partly cloudy skies, versus potential for increased low-level moisture or light northwesterly flow that could limit afternoon heating by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Warsaw and precise solar insolation under variable cloud cover further modulate the maximum, while historical August baselines around 23–26°C provide context for why extremes above 27°C or below 24°C remain low-probability outcomes in the market. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,000結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on August 2 likely between 25–28°C, with trader consensus centering on 25°C and 26°C due to model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing. Key differentiating factors include the strength of a high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and clear to partly cloudy skies, versus potential for increased low-level moisture or light northwesterly flow that could limit afternoon heating by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Warsaw and precise solar insolation under variable cloud cover further modulate the maximum, while historical August baselines around 23–26°C provide context for why extremes above 27°C or below 24°C remain low-probability outcomes in the market. Updated model runs overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions