Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 6 under cloudy skies with rain developing later, driven by a stationary front and northerly flow advecting cooler, moist air. Multiple models show widespread cloud cover and precipitation suppressing solar heating, consistent with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns that cap highs 4–6°C below the September normal of 29°C. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 23–25°C reflect this consensus, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of heaviest rain and any breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the peak temperature outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日東京氣溫最高？
9月6日東京氣溫最高？
24°C 35%
25°C 29%
23°C 23%
26°C 8%
最新
$10,628 交易量
最新
$10,628 交易量
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
23%
24°C
35%
25°C
29%
26°C
8%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C或以上
<1%
24°C 35%
25°C 29%
23°C 23%
26°C 8%
最新
$10,628 交易量
最新
$10,628 交易量
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
$1,245 交易量
<1%
20°C
$1,076 交易量
<1%
21°C
$168 交易量
2%
22°C
$1,088 交易量
3%
23°C
$1,679 交易量
23%
24°C
$872 交易量
35%
25°C
$1,665 交易量
29%
26°C
$1,755 交易量
8%
27°C
$433 交易量
4%
28°C
$290 交易量
1%
29°C或以上
$358 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 6 under cloudy skies with rain developing later, driven by a stationary front and northerly flow advecting cooler, moist air. Multiple models show widespread cloud cover and precipitation suppressing solar heating, consistent with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns that cap highs 4–6°C below the September normal of 29°C. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 23–25°C reflect this consensus, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of heaviest rain and any breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the peak temperature outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$10,628結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 6 under cloudy skies with rain developing later, driven by a stationary front and northerly flow advecting cooler, moist air. Multiple models show widespread cloud cover and precipitation suppressing solar heating, consistent with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns that cap highs 4–6°C below the September normal of 29°C. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 23–25°C reflect this consensus, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of heaviest rain and any breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the peak temperature outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,628結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETOfficial forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 6 under cloudy skies with rain developing later, driven by a stationary front and northerly flow advecting cooler, moist air. Multiple models show widespread cloud cover and precipitation suppressing solar heating, consistent with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns that cap highs 4–6°C below the September normal of 29°C. Market-implied odds clustered tightly around 23–25°C reflect this consensus, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of heaviest rain and any breaks in cloud that could allow brief warming. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the peak temperature outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions