**Recent NWS guidance and model consensus point to a high near or slightly below 100°F in Austin on August 1, 2026, with the 98–99°F bin leading at 46.5% implied probability.** A ridge of high pressure has maintained seasonably hot conditions across central Texas, with daytime highs running 3–6°F above the long-term August average of roughly 95–97°F. However, increasing moisture and a chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms—forecast probabilities reaching 35% along the I-35 corridor—introduce cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can cap the daily maximum. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio office currently call for a high near 99–101°F under partly to mostly sunny skies, with heat indices potentially exceeding 104°F where sunshine persists. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on convective timing and coverage, keeping the 100–101°F outcome at 25.5% while trimming odds for 102°F+. Historical analogs for early-August days with similar moisture return favor peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s, aligning with the market’s concentration between 96–101°F. Updated short-range guidance and radar trends through the afternoon will be the key variables that could shift the final observed high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
8月1日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 20%
94-95°F 6%
最新
$12,607 交易量
最新
$12,607 交易量
2026-08-01
華氏91度或以下
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
20%
98-99°F
47%
100-101°F
25%
102-103°F
6%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F或更高
<1%
98-99°F 47%
100-101°F 25%
96-97°F 20%
94-95°F 6%
最新
$12,607 交易量
最新
$12,607 交易量
2026-08-01
華氏91度或以下
$976 交易量
1%
92-93°F
$277 交易量
1%
94-95°F
$967 交易量
6%
96-97°F
$2,053 交易量
20%
98-99°F
$2,485 交易量
47%
100-101°F
$2,186 交易量
25%
102-103°F
$1,352 交易量
6%
104-105°F
$1,628 交易量
<1%
106-107°F
$293 交易量
<1%
108-109°F
$287 交易量
<1%
110°F或更高
$294 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS guidance and model consensus point to a high near or slightly below 100°F in Austin on August 1, 2026, with the 98–99°F bin leading at 46.5% implied probability.** A ridge of high pressure has maintained seasonably hot conditions across central Texas, with daytime highs running 3–6°F above the long-term August average of roughly 95–97°F. However, increasing moisture and a chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms—forecast probabilities reaching 35% along the I-35 corridor—introduce cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can cap the daily maximum.
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio office currently call for a high near 99–101°F under partly to mostly sunny skies, with heat indices potentially exceeding 104°F where sunshine persists. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on convective timing and coverage, keeping the 100–101°F outcome at 25.5% while trimming odds for 102°F+. Historical analogs for early-August days with similar moisture return favor peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s, aligning with the market’s concentration between 96–101°F. Updated short-range guidance and radar trends through the afternoon will be the key variables that could shift the final observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$12,607結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS guidance and model consensus point to a high near or slightly below 100°F in Austin on August 1, 2026, with the 98–99°F bin leading at 46.5% implied probability.** A ridge of high pressure has maintained seasonably hot conditions across central Texas, with daytime highs running 3–6°F above the long-term August average of roughly 95–97°F. However, increasing moisture and a chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms—forecast probabilities reaching 35% along the I-35 corridor—introduce cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can cap the daily maximum.
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio office currently call for a high near 99–101°F under partly to mostly sunny skies, with heat indices potentially exceeding 104°F where sunshine persists. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on convective timing and coverage, keeping the 100–101°F outcome at 25.5% while trimming odds for 102°F+. Historical analogs for early-August days with similar moisture return favor peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s, aligning with the market’s concentration between 96–101°F. Updated short-range guidance and radar trends through the afternoon will be the key variables that could shift the final observed high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,607結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ET**Recent NWS guidance and model consensus point to a high near or slightly below 100°F in Austin on August 1, 2026, with the 98–99°F bin leading at 46.5% implied probability.** A ridge of high pressure has maintained seasonably hot conditions across central Texas, with daytime highs running 3–6°F above the long-term August average of roughly 95–97°F. However, increasing moisture and a chance of scattered afternoon thunderstorms—forecast probabilities reaching 35% along the I-35 corridor—introduce cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can cap the daily maximum. Official forecasts from the National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio office currently call for a high near 99–101°F under partly to mostly sunny skies, with heat indices potentially exceeding 104°F where sunshine persists. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on convective timing and coverage, keeping the 100–101°F outcome at 25.5% while trimming odds for 102°F+. Historical analogs for early-August days with similar moisture return favor peaks in the upper 90s to low 100s, aligning with the market’s concentration between 96–101°F. Updated short-range guidance and radar trends through the afternoon will be the key variables that could shift the final observed high.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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