**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$13,209 KL.
$13,209 KL.
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71°F
99%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 99%
68-69°F 2%
66-67°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$13,209 KL.
$13,209 KL.
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
$469 KL.
<1%
60-61°F
$281 KL.
<1%
62-63°F
$567 KL.
<1%
64-65°F
$700 KL.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,155 KL.
1%
68-69°F
$2,500 KL.
2%
70-71°F
$1,335 KL.
99%
72-73°F
$3,035 KL.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,965 KL.
<1%
76-77°F
$778 KL.
<1%
78°F or higher
$424 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,209Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing.
Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$13,209Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 70-71°F low in New York City on August 4, with 98% implied probability.** This reflects National Weather Service and AccuWeather model guidance showing overnight temperatures bottoming in the low 70s amid typical summer conditions: partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high humidity that limits radiational cooling. Central Park and LaGuardia Airport observations align with seasonal baselines, where August nighttime lows average near 70°F. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the tight market pricing. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover or a wind shift that enhances cooling, potentially dropping readings into the upper 60s before midnight. Updated forecast discussions from NOAA could still shift the outcome if they revise dew points or boundary-layer mixing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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