Current forecast consensus from agencies including AEMET and international models positions Madrid's August 3 maximum near 32–33°C under typical early-August high-pressure patterns with minimal cloud cover and light winds, driving the market's leading implied probabilities of 46.5% for 33°C and 31.5% for 32°C. These outcomes align with climatological averages for the period and the absence of heatwave conditions or strong southerly flow that could push readings higher. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest uncertainty from potential diurnal variations or localized effects keeping 34°C at 13.5% and cooler thresholds below 10% combined. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will further refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on August 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 3?
33°C 52%
32°C 30%
34°C 15%
35°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 3, 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
5%
32°C
30%
33°C
52%
34°C
15%
35°C
7%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
33°C 52%
32°C 30%
34°C 15%
35°C 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 3, 2026
29°C or below
$10 KL.
2%
30°C
$10 KL.
2%
31°C
$15 KL.
5%
32°C
$56 KL.
30%
33°C
$61 KL.
52%
34°C
$22 KL.
15%
35°C
$17 KL.
7%
36°C
$20 KL.
4%
37°C
$11 KL.
2%
38°C
$10 KL.
1%
39°C or higher
$10 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from agencies including AEMET and international models positions Madrid's August 3 maximum near 32–33°C under typical early-August high-pressure patterns with minimal cloud cover and light winds, driving the market's leading implied probabilities of 46.5% for 33°C and 31.5% for 32°C. These outcomes align with climatological averages for the period and the absence of heatwave conditions or strong southerly flow that could push readings higher. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest uncertainty from potential diurnal variations or localized effects keeping 34°C at 13.5% and cooler thresholds below 10% combined. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will further refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$242Ngày kết thúc
Aug 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from agencies including AEMET and international models positions Madrid's August 3 maximum near 32–33°C under typical early-August high-pressure patterns with minimal cloud cover and light winds, driving the market's leading implied probabilities of 46.5% for 33°C and 31.5% for 32°C. These outcomes align with climatological averages for the period and the absence of heatwave conditions or strong southerly flow that could push readings higher. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest uncertainty from potential diurnal variations or localized effects keeping 34°C at 13.5% and cooler thresholds below 10% combined. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will further refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$242Ngày kết thúc
Aug 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from agencies including AEMET and international models positions Madrid's August 3 maximum near 32–33°C under typical early-August high-pressure patterns with minimal cloud cover and light winds, driving the market's leading implied probabilities of 46.5% for 33°C and 31.5% for 32°C. These outcomes align with climatological averages for the period and the absence of heatwave conditions or strong southerly flow that could push readings higher. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest uncertainty from potential diurnal variations or localized effects keeping 34°C at 13.5% and cooler thresholds below 10% combined. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will further refine trader positioning on these thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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