**Official forecasts from the Met Office and other models converge on a daytime maximum of 22 °C for London on 31 August 2026.** This aligns closely with the long-term average high of ~21.9 °C for the date at London Heathrow, reflecting typical late-summer conditions under westerly flow with a mix of cloud and sunny spells. Scattered showers are possible but are not expected to suppress the afternoon peak significantly, as daytime heating and light winds allow temperatures to reach the low-20s °C range. Recent model runs show high agreement on this outcome, with hourly guidance peaking near 22 °C in the early-to-mid afternoon. Broader August conditions have run slightly above the 1991–2020 baseline, yet no anomalous heat advection or blocking pattern is present to push readings higher. The 60 % market-implied probability on 22 °C captures this consensus, while the smaller probabilities on 21 °C and 23 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and timing of any showers. New model updates overnight remain the key near-term variable before resolution.