Recent forecasts from regional models indicate a southwest wind shift bringing cooler maritime air into the Río de la Plata region ahead of August 7, supporting market-implied odds clustered around 13–15°C as the most probable daily maximum. This aligns with late-winter climatology for Buenos Aires, where average highs near 15–17°C can vary several degrees based on frontal timing and cloud cover, with current guidance showing limited diurnal warming under partly cloudy skies and overnight lows dipping to 4–6°C. Traders assign the narrow spread among leading outcomes because small differences in advection strength or model consensus on frontal passage could easily shift the observed high by 1°C, while warmer or colder outliers remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and next model runs will provide the key near-term signals for resolution.