Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin and faces only nominal Republican opposition from first-time candidate Edgardo Baez in the November general election. Texas's 20th district, anchored in San Antonio, carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index that has delivered consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Castro's established fundraising base, committee seniority, and local recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include an unforeseen national Republican surge, late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns in the district's key voting blocs, or any personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTX-20 House Election Winner
TX-20 House Election Winner
$26,839 Обс.
$26,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$26,839 Обс.
$26,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,368 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$14,471 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin and faces only nominal Republican opposition from first-time candidate Edgardo Baez in the November general election. Texas's 20th district, anchored in San Antonio, carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index that has delivered consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Castro's established fundraising base, committee seniority, and local recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include an unforeseen national Republican surge, late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns in the district's key voting blocs, or any personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$26,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin and faces only nominal Republican opposition from first-time candidate Edgardo Baez in the November general election. Texas's 20th district, anchored in San Antonio, carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index that has delivered consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Castro's established fundraising base, committee seniority, and local recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include an unforeseen national Republican surge, late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns in the district's key voting blocs, or any personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$26,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary by a wide margin and faces only nominal Republican opposition from first-time candidate Edgardo Baez in the November general election. Texas's 20th district, anchored in San Antonio, carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index that has delivered consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles. Castro's established fundraising base, committee seniority, and local recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current 94.5% implied probability for Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow this gap include an unforeseen national Republican surge, late-cycle developments altering turnout patterns in the district's key voting blocs, or any personal or legal issue affecting the incumbent before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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