Traders assign 69.5% implied probability to No because none of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, meteor impact above 10 kilotons, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—have occurred through early August 2026. Official USGS seismic records show the year's strongest quake at 7.8, while global volcanism databases confirm no VEI 6 activity. Atlantic hurricane peak season remains ahead, yet National Hurricane Center model consensus indicates limited intensification potential for U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 levels. Historical baselines confirm these events occur infrequently, sustaining the market's current consensus absent new observational shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
31% шанс
$235,862 Обс.
$235,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
31% шанс
$235,862 Обс.
$235,862 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign 69.5% implied probability to No because none of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, meteor impact above 10 kilotons, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—have occurred through early August 2026. Official USGS seismic records show the year's strongest quake at 7.8, while global volcanism databases confirm no VEI 6 activity. Atlantic hurricane peak season remains ahead, yet National Hurricane Center model consensus indicates limited intensification potential for U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 levels. Historical baselines confirm these events occur infrequently, sustaining the market's current consensus absent new observational shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$235,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign 69.5% implied probability to No because none of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, meteor impact above 10 kilotons, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—have occurred through early August 2026. Official USGS seismic records show the year's strongest quake at 7.8, while global volcanism databases confirm no VEI 6 activity. Atlantic hurricane peak season remains ahead, yet National Hurricane Center model consensus indicates limited intensification potential for U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 levels. Historical baselines confirm these events occur infrequently, sustaining the market's current consensus absent new observational shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$235,862Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign 69.5% implied probability to No because none of the four resolution thresholds—a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, meteor impact above 10 kilotons, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake—have occurred through early August 2026. Official USGS seismic records show the year's strongest quake at 7.8, while global volcanism databases confirm no VEI 6 activity. Atlantic hurricane peak season remains ahead, yet National Hurricane Center model consensus indicates limited intensification potential for U.S. landfall at Saffir-Simpson Category 5 levels. Historical baselines confirm these events occur infrequently, sustaining the market's current consensus absent new observational shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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